Bottom 3% Since 2011
The CSH Score just hit its lowest reading in three years. Here's what's actually happening underneath the price.
Crypto Super Hub — Weekly Market Intelligence | 28 June 2026
I sit at a crypto exchange during the day. The clearest signal I’ve seen all year isn’t on a chart. It’s who stopped calling.
Retail has quietly disappeared. The everyday buyer who was here eighteen months ago has thinned right out, and the money still coming through the door is increasingly super money. Self-managed funds, deploying on a schedule, unbothered by the red.
The two trends are happening at once, and they say more about human behaviour than any indicator I could show you. Retail got washed out. Some ran out of capital. Most just lost interest the day prices stopped going up. What’s left standing are the people whose money is locked in super, who can’t touch it and won’t flinch with it.
That’s the whole thing in one sentence. Most people invest on emotion. They buy strength and disappear in weakness. The ones still here are behaving systematically almost by accident, because the structure forces them to.
That gap, between buying on feeling and buying on a system, is the exact reason we built CSH.
CSH Risk Dashboard
BTC: $59,893 | CSH Score: 17.3 | Zone: Deep accumulation | 7-day score change: -18.4%
The Score is at 17.3. That’s the bottom 3% of every reading since 2011.
To put that band in context: the last bear market bottom printed 15.0 in November 2022, with price at $15,781. The most recent all-time high, $124,774 last October, carried a score of 65.4. We’re sitting much closer to the first number than the second.
The three things that drive the Score all point the same way right now. Long-term price position, the heaviest input, reads 16.8. Short-term momentum is at 18.7. And market sentiment, the Fear and Greed read, is down at 18.0, which is extreme fear. When all three are this low at once, you’re deep in the part of the cycle nobody enjoys living through.
Here’s how I’m reading the move. BTC closed below its 200-week moving average this week, around $62K, a line it has rarely spent real time beneath. I think we now test the 300-week, currently just under $55K. That’s the level price sat below for roughly seven months through the last bear, from August 2022 into early 2023, around the FTX collapse. It’s not a line we just kissed and bounced off. We lived under it for a while. My base case isn’t a straight line down from here. I can see a relief rally back toward the bear-market band first, then one more leg lower into Q4 that does the real work.
That’s a view, not a forecast, and I hold it loosely. The part I’m acting on is the Score, not the path.
The dip that used to scare me
In 2021, a 10% drop would make me feel physically sick. I’d sit there refreshing the screen, running the same three questions on a loop. Should I sell to free up cash. Is this the bottom. Are we going lower.
I never had an answer, because I never had a plan. So I’d freeze. And the freezing is what cost me. I had the conviction in that first bear market. I believed in the asset. I just had no system that made me act on it, so I waited for a cleaner signal that never came, and I under-bought the exact zone I’d spent months waiting for.
That’s the regret that still sits with me from 2022. Not a trade I made. The BTC I didn’t buy.
This week BTC fell through $60K, and I noticed something had changed. The sick feeling was gone. In its place was something closer to relief. Same person, opposite reaction, and the only difference between the two cycles is that one had a system behind it and one had nothing.
Now when price drops, the Score drops with it. My average buy price comes down. I get to put capital to work in a band that has rarely shown up in 15 years of history. The dread became opportunity, and not because I got braver. It changed because I stopped trusting my gut and started trusting a number.
That reframe only works because two things are true now that weren’t true in 2021. I have cash set aside, waiting. And I have a number I trust to tell me when to spend it.
So I’ve spent most of this year sitting on my hands, waiting for the Score to slip under 20. It did. I’m accumulating BTC and only BTC, because it still carries the best risk-adjusted setup I can see, and I think the broader alt market needs one more proper reset before it goes anywhere. The backdrop isn’t doing risk assets any favours either, between rate pressure at home, sticky inflation, and money chasing AI names and private-market hype. So I’m holding the line on the BTC-first plan.
In ten years I doubt it’ll matter whether I bought at $60K, $55K or $40K. What will matter is that I built the position, instead of waiting for a bottom that only ever looks obvious once it’s gone.
Want the number I’m building this plan around? The CSH Score is free.
Jake’s Workbench
A reminder for anyone setting up a self-managed fund for crypto right now. The start date matters more than people expect, and we are days away from it mattering a lot.
A few of the trustees I speak to are deliberately waiting until 1 July to deploy. The logic is simple. Begin in June and you’re generally up for a full year of fund running costs plus a tax return for a few weeks of actual activity. Wait for the new financial year and you skip the FY26 paperwork altogether. For a brand new fund that can be the difference of a couple of thousand dollars in accountant fees, for no change to the actual strategy.
This isn’t advice on whether to set one up. Plenty of people get that part wrong by rushing. It’s a timing point worth raising with your accountant before you do anything this week, because the window closes when the financial year resets.
Quick Hits
Price closed below the 200-week. BTC slipped under its 200-week moving average this week, around $62K, a level it has rarely spent real time beneath. So what: historically this line has marked deep value, but it has never been tested in a rate environment like this one, so treat it as context, not a guarantee.
Extreme fear, again. The Fear and Greed Index is parked in extreme fear, which feeds directly into the Score’s sentiment input. So what: sentiment this washed out has lined up with accumulation zones before, but it can stay washed out longer than feels comfortable.
SpaceX has given back a third of its peak. Two weeks after we wrote about skipping the biggest listing in history, SpaceX (SPCX) has fallen from a high of $225.64 on 16 June to around $153 now, roughly a 32% drop from the top. So what: not a victory lap, and I’m still bullish on the company on a ten-year view. The lesson is about hype absorbing attention and capital, then mean-reverting, the same pattern that plays out in crypto.
Retail’s quiet exit. The clearest read from the exchange seat this year is how thin the everyday buyer has become. So what: when retail gives up is historically closer to the bottom than the top, though “historically” is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
The Week Ahead
1 July, financial year reset. Watch for SMSF capital that’s been parked on the sidelines to start deploying once the new year ticks over and the paperwork penalty disappears.
The US jobs report, the print that matters. The June nonfarm payrolls land this week, the single biggest macro event on the calendar. Consensus is around 100,000 jobs added with unemployment near 4.3%, a result that would keep the Fed on hold in July. A surprise either way shifts rate expectations, and rate expectations move risk assets like BTC.
A new voice at the Fed. Kevin Warsh makes one of his first public appearances as Fed Chair this week. Markets will be listening for any signal on the rate path now the chair has changed, especially with pressure building for cuts.
Thin liquidity into the long weekend. US stock and bond markets are closed Friday 3 July for the Fourth of July holiday. Lighter volume around a long weekend can exaggerate moves, so don’t read too much into a sharp candle on low participation.
The 200-week as the line in the sand. Whether BTC reclaims that level or stays beneath it tells you more than any headline. My base case is a possible relief rally toward the bear-market band, then one more leg lower into Q4, but I hold that loosely. The Score is the thing I’m acting on, not the path.
The Close
The market this year has been a sorting machine. It’s quietly separated the people investing on emotion from the people running a process, and only one of those groups is still standing.
You don’t need to call the exact bottom. You need a number you trust and the discipline to act on it before it feels safe, because by the time it feels safe the discount is gone.
The Score’s at 16.9. I’m telling you where it is, not what to do with it. Create your free CSH account and see the same number I’m building my plan around.
See you next week.
— Jake